KUALA LUMPUR, April 21 (Xinhua) -- Economists have on Monday foreseen volatility in external trade ahead for Malaysia amid global trade tensions.
Maybank Investment Bank said in a note that it expects volatile external trade figures ahead as the export front-loading effect runs its course and followed by a cloudy outlook depending on the outcome of Malaysia's trade negotiation with the United States and the U.S. decision with regards to key pending tariffs on semiconductors.
At the same time, it said Malaysia's imports will also be correspondingly volatile in response to exports, especially intermediate goods imports, plus changes in base effect on capital goods imports.
The research house forecasts Malaysia's full-year export and import growth slowed to 4.3 percent and 5.8 percent, respectively, from 5.7 percent and 13.2 percent last year.
In a separate note, Hong Leong Investment Bank said that the ongoing investigation into Malaysia's electrical and electronics imports, coupled with the fluidity of U.S. tariff policies, continues to introduce uncertainty to its trade outlook.
Meanwhile, MIDF Research said in a note that trade policy uncertainties, elevated price pressures, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and the possibility of weaker demand from key trading partners could pose significant downside risks to Malaysia's trade outlook.
The research house has revised down Malaysia's growth projection, with both export and import to moderate to 2 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively, this year, as companies will scale down production in anticipation of a weaker demand outlook, it said. ■
