by Dana Halawi
BEIRUT, Dec. 21 (Xinhua) -- Lebanon faces multiple crises as 2024 draws to a close, grappling with the aftermath of a destructive conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, a prolonged financial collapse since 2019, and ongoing political paralysis marked by the failure to elect a new president.
The war, which erupted on Oct. 8, 2023, after Hezbollah opened a support front for Gaza following Hamas's large-scale attacks on Israel, escalated dangerously over the past year. The conflict left more than 4,000 people dead and over 16,600 injured, and caused the deaths of key Hezbollah leaders, including Hassan Nasrallah.
The violence has also compounded Lebanon's economic woes. Already reeling from a financial crisis that has devalued its currency by over 90 percent since 2019, the country now has nearly 44 percent of its population living in poverty, according to the World Bank.
However, signs of optimism have emerged as Lebanon prepares to enter 2025. A ceasefire agreement between Lebanon's government and Israel, also agreed by Hezbollah, is set to implement UN Resolution 1701. Under the agreement, Hezbollah will retreat behind the Litani River, the Lebanese army will deploy in the south, and Israeli forces will withdraw from southern Lebanese towns and villages within 60 days.
In another development, Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri has scheduled a session for Jan. 9, 2025, to elect a new president. The move is seen as a potentially significant step forward, bolstered by international pressure to select a leader capable of overseeing the implementation of the ceasefire deal.
HEZBOLLAH-ISRAEL CONFLICT
The conflict has dramatically altered Lebanon's political landscape, with Israeli airstrikes leaving widespread destruction across southern Lebanon and Beirut's southern suburb of Dahieh, a Hezbollah stronghold.
While Hezbollah officials insist the group remains robust after 14 months of fighting, Israeli authorities report substantial damage to the organization, widely regarded as one of the region's most powerful non-state military and political force. Former Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant claimed more than 80 percent of Hezbollah's rocket capabilities had been destroyed.
"A year later, it is not the same Hezbollah," Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a public address explaining his cabinet's decision to agree to a ceasefire in early December. "We have set them back decades."
Moreover, the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah's leader, along with several senior commanders, has dealt a significant blow to the Lebanese armed group and other regional actors opposing Israel. Nasrallah's death also raises questions about Hezbollah's future role in Lebanon, even as it remains a formidable force.
Lebanese political researcher and consultant Refaat Badawi told Xinhua that while Hezbollah may be weakened, it "has not surrendered." He noted the Shiite party still holds 15 of the 128 seats in Lebanon's parliament and command vast assets across the country.
However, Badawi also noted that Hezbollah could face challenges maintaining some parliamentary alliances due to its diminishing strength.
Lebanese political analyst Youssef Diab described Nasrallah's assassination as a pivotal moment in the conflict with Israel. "This is a critical test for Hezbollah," Diab said. "Nasrallah was a key figure managing all aspects of the organization -- political, military, and religious. His unique ability to rally fighters and supporters through his persuasive rhetoric is irreplaceable."
LINGERING FINANCIAL CRISIS
Lebanon is grappling with one of the worst crises in its modern history, as an economic and financial collapse that began in 2019 has been compounded by the conflict.
A recent World Bank report estimates that the conflict has caused 8.5 billion U.S. dollars in combined physical damage and economic losses. Of this, 3.4 billion dollars accounts for infrastructure damages, while economic losses stand at 5.1 billion. The report predicts Lebanon's real GDP growth will shrink by at least 6.6 percent in 2024.
Key sectors such as tourism and agriculture have suffered substantial setbacks.
Nassib Ghobril, economist and head of economic research at Lebanon's Byblos Bank, said the decline in tourism would significantly impact revenue, with tourism receipts projected to fall from 5.4 billion dollars in 2023 to less than half that amount in 2024. The retail sector has also suffered as consumers prioritize essential goods, and the destruction of manufacturing facilities in the south and Nabatieh governorates has further disrupted the economy.
Agriculture has been similarly devastated. Ibrahim Tarshishi, head of the farmers' association in the Bekaa region, reported that around 50 percent of agricultural lands have been partially or entirely disrupted by the conflict.
SIGNS OF HOPE FOR ENDING POLITICAL DEADLOCK
Lebanon remained without a president throughout 2024 as parliament repeatedly failed to elect a successor to Michel Aoun, who left office in October 2022 at the end of his term, due to political deadlock.
This presidential vacuum has coincided with a caretaker government led by Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati, who has been unable to form a new government, creating an unprecedented dual executive vacuum.
The political gridlock has hampered efforts to implement structural reforms demanded by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to unlock much-needed financial assistance.
Parliament is scheduled to convene on Jan. 9 to attempt another presidential election, raising hopes of restoring the functioning of public institutions and reviving legislative activity.
"The presence of a president elected with the consensus of all parties in Lebanon is very critical as it brings hope to political life in Lebanon with the functioning of public institutions," said Badawi.
Additionally, the ceasefire reached between Lebanon and Israel in late November presents a potential pathway to stability and economic recovery for Lebanon. There is hope among the Lebanese that this newfound stability could pave the way for the resurgence of tourism, a key pillar of the country's economy, along with the revival of other economic activities.
"This is expected to deliver a positive boost to the economy. With reconstruction efforts, a revival in tourism, and the normalization of economic activities, 2025 is likely to outperform 2024 -- provided the conflict does not reignite," said Nassib Ghobril. ■
