* Maher Ihsan, a Syrian political expert, said the power shift in Syria triggered "a broad regional recalibration."
* "The immediate period may remain fragile ... Stability will hinge on successful integration of diverse communities, robust rebuilding efforts, and the new leadership's ability to maintain security and foster inclusive political dialogue."
by Xinhua writer Guo Yage
CAIRO, Dec. 17 (Xinhua) -- The Mideast chessboard was muddled up overnight following Syria's recent upheaval that led to the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad on Dec. 8.
While the newly-formed Syrian transitional government vowed to pivot to state-building to ensure lasting peace in the country, several key regional players have exploited the power vacuum to bomb targets in Syria, citing "security concerns" or pursuing their own strategic objectives.
As observers have opined, Syria's deeply fragmented social and cultural fabric, coupled with its role as a shooting range for external powers, has thrown Syria's stability beyond the bounds of possibility and presents grave risks to the broader Mideast geopolitical landscape.
WEEK ONE WITHOUT AL-ASSAD
The militant coalition led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), whose 12-day military operation toppled al-Assad's government, has tasked former regional militant leader Mohammed al-Bashir with heading a transitional government until March 2025.
Al-Bashir stressed the need for a smooth transition, prioritizing security, essential services and preventing state fragmentation.
Meanwhile, HTS chief Ahmad al-Shara vowed to take "careful, deliberate steps" to rehabilitate state institutions to ensure a "strong and efficient" governance system. He promised to create a safe environment for refugees to return and announced plans of sweeping reforms, not least a 400-percent salary increase, disarming all factions, and rebuilding war-torn communities.
Sawt al-Asima, a news outlet supportive of the militant coalition, reported that the Syrian constitution and parliament had been suspended for three months. A week after al-Assad's downfall, the Syrian capital of Damascus saw the resumption of classes and academic work, albeit limited.
According to a regional flash update published Friday by the UNHCR, the UN refugee agency, while the overall security situation in most areas of Syria is improving, the situation across northeastern Syria "remains volatile following major territorial and political shifts."
An estimated 1.1 million people, the agency said, have been internally displaced in Syria since the upheaval amid reports of food and fuel shortages.
Looting and a lack of staff and medicine are forcing some healthcare facilities to close in Syria amid the fluid security situation, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said Friday.
While some Syrians chose to return to their homeland from neighboring countries following the dramatic power shift, others decided to flee the country to escape the chaos.
A source at the Masnaa border crossing told Xinhua that 1,000-1,200 people legally enter Lebanon from Syria every day. An additional 90,000 Syrians have entered through illegal routes, estimated the Lebanese General Security.
Britain and some EU countries have suspended asylum decisions for Syrians, fueling debates about refugee returns and deportation.
Media reports said that the Syrian pound has strengthened by at least 20 percent against the U.S. dollar over the past two days amid an influx of Syrians and the open use of foreign currencies.
Though it offered a glimmer of hope for the country's long-bruised economy that was previously projected to contract by 1.5 percent this year, the situation remains unstable and highly unpredictable.
UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen expressed hope for lifting sanctions to facilitate Syria's recovery, but EU officials have ruled out sanctions relief for now.
According to UN estimates, over 16 million Syrians urgently require humanitarian assistance, and more than 90 percent of Syrians live under the poverty line. Pedersen emphasized the need for urgent aid and the restoration of state institutions with security guarantees.
FILLING POWER VACUUM
As Syria's landscape evolves, Türkiye reopened its embassy in Damascus for the first time in 12 years, and Qatar resumed diplomatic operations after a 13-year hiatus. Senior officials from both countries visited Damascus for talks with the HTS leadership.
On Wednesday, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reportedly accused the United States and Israel of plotting al-Assad's ouster and blamed a "neighboring" country of Syria, which is widely believed to be Türkiye. Iran has reportedly evacuated 4,000 personnel from Syria.
Western powers also set in. The United States has made "direct" contact with the HTS, Britain has confirmed "diplomatic contact" with the militant group, and a French diplomatic mission reportedly traveled to Damascus Tuesday to reestablish contact.
Russia continues to maintain its embassy and has engaged with the HTS, hoping to keep its military presence in Syria for anti-terrorism efforts.
The evolving power vacuum, as The Wall Street Journal put it, has made Syria's borders a "shooting range for great powers."
Israel has escalated airstrikes in Syria, citing "terrorist" threats, and expanded settlements in the Golan Heights, actions condemned by the international community.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu "has embraced a maximalist military strategy" and "seeks to establish a legacy of territorial expansion," Israeli political analyst Aluf Benn told local media.
Meanwhile, the United States said it launched airstrikes against more than 75 Islamic State targets in central Syria. Militant groups backed by Türkiye reportedly attacked Kurdish forces and seized territory in northern Syria.
Maher Ihsan, a Syrian political expert, told Xinhua that the power shift in Syria triggered "a broad regional recalibration," with countries like Türkiye, Iran, Israel, and the United States reassessing their positions.
While the Syrian militant groups "savor their surprise swoop on Damascus, foreign powers are seizing the moment to either clean house or settle scores," France24 has said.
DUST TO SETTLE SOON?
"The recent and extensive violations of Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity are deeply concerning. While maintaining public order, it is imperative to support credible, orderly and inclusive transitional arrangements in Syria," UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres wrote Friday on social media platform X.
While the international community has called for a stable, Syrian-led political transition that avoids further violence and promises a better future for the country, experts remain largely skeptical about the prospects of settling the dust in Syria and the Middle East at large, given the complexity of Syria's political and social landscape and what The Washington Post called a regional "competition that could defer indefinitely the peace and stability Syrians crave and potentially spill into a wider region already roiled by war."
Syria, widely known as "the heart of the Middle East" due to its strategic location and complex ethnic and religious makeup, shares borders with five countries. Its diverse social fabric includes groups like the Syrian National Army, Kurdish militias, and various Islamist factions, making forces opposing al-Assad far from monolithic.
Although the removal of al-Assad may have once been a common objective, the critical question remains whether these factions will unite under a single political framework or fall into further conflicts.
"The immediate period may remain fragile ... Stability will hinge on successful integration of diverse communities, robust rebuilding efforts, and the new leadership's ability to maintain security and foster inclusive political dialogue," Ihsan told Xinhua.
"For the foreseeable future, the region will remain a complex environment of shifting alliances, external interventions, and competing interests," he said.
"Given Syria's internal structure, its highly fragmented and divided social and cultural fabric, along with the ethnic and sectarian sensitivities that have completely fractured society, I don't find much cause for optimism in the short run (on Syria's stability)," Baris Doster, an academic at Istanbul-based Marmara University, told Xinhua.
"The main challenge lies in the HTS's ability to successfully manage this transitional phase," Mokhtar Ghobashy, secretary general of the Al-Farabi Center for Political Studies in Egypt, told Xinhua. "The future direction of the Middle East remains uncertain, as the region grapples with numerous challenges and a lack of clear leadership."
"There is no guarantee that the situation in Syria will not deteriorate, as some of the factions that make up HTS have external connections. If external powers intervene, there will be a negative impact on the stability of Syria," Mohammed al-Jubouri, a professor of media at the Baghdad-based al-Iraqia University, told Xinhua.
"The future situation in the Middle East region is worrying and unstable due to the different intentions and agendas of the main players in the region," he said.
(Ji Ze and Hummam Sheikh Ali in Damascus, Wang Zhuolun and Nick Kolyohin in Jerusalem, Yao Bing and Dong Xiuzhu in Cairo, Zeynep Cermen in Istanbul, and Li Jun and Duan Minfu in Baghdad also contributed to the story. Video reports: Ji Ze and Monsef Memari; Video editors: Liu Ruoshi, Zak Zuzanna, Li Qin, Zhu Cong and Zhao Xiaoqing)■
