KIEV, Feb. 20 (Xinhua) -- The withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from a key town of Avdiivka in the eastern Donetsk region will not lead to the strategic defeat of the Ukrainian army, an expert has said.
"The withdrawal from Avdiivka due to lack of ammunition is a negative experience, but it will not have strategic importance in the war," Anton Naychuk, the director of the Civil Diplomacy Foundation, told Xinhua in a recent interview.
The Ukrainian forces withdrew from another key town of Bakhmut last year, but it didn't cause the sharp advance of the Russian troops, the analyst noted.
However, Naychuk pointed out that the Russian army may continue its offensive and launch large-scale attacks in multiple directions.
"They can redeploy some units from Avdiivka to the Vuhledar direction and strike from Bakhmut to the direction of Chasiv Yar. At the same time, Russian troops will try to hit the Ukrainian positions in Rabotyno to straighten the frontline in the south," he said.
As the key reason for Ukraine's slow progress in repelling Russian forces, Naychuk named the ammunition shortage.
"The delay in military assistance from the U.S. significantly complicates the ability of the Ukrainian armed forces to conduct active defense and organize counter-offensive actions," the expert stressed.
He did not rule out the fact that the situation with ammunition shortage will not improve for Ukraine soon.
"A potential shortage of air defense projectiles in the coming months is a real scenario that puts Ukraine's cities, as well as the energy and the industrial sectors at risk of missile attacks by Russia," Naychuk said.
The possible ammunition shortage could lead to more civilian casualties and weaken Ukraine's battlefield positions, he stressed.
Although Ukraine has signed security cooperation agreements with Britain, Germany, France and some other European countries, Europe is unable to quickly mobilize enough military resources to help Ukraine, he said.
The delay in the U.S. decision on the ammunition supplies to Ukraine is currently another major concern for the Ukrainian authorities, the expert added.
"We have to admit that in 2024, the collective West might not fulfill its promises regarding the supply volumes in time. However, the situation is expected to improve in 2025," Naychuk said.
Ukraine is developing domestic production of weapons, including drones, to ease its dependence on foreign supplies, he added.
Speaking on the government's plan to mobilize new troops, the expert said that though it is a difficult decision, the mobilization is needed to replace tired servicemen, who have been involved in the conflict for two years.
"Everyone understands the need to rotate the military, who are constantly at the frontlines," Naychuk said.
According to him, it is difficult to project how long the Russia-Ukraine conflict would last as Western aid and sanctions so far have failed to prevent Russia's offensive, but the Ukrainian army has adapted to the difficult frontline situation.
"At the moment, Russian troops are in an active offensive phase as it was in the first half of 2022. Ukraine is accumulating resources and accelerating the strategic depletion of Russian forces," the expert noted.
Commenting on Ukraine's possible counteroffensive, Naychuk said it may take place this summer or in the first half of 2025.
"Ukraine maintains its offensive potential in all directions," he said.
The expert voiced his belief that the Ukrainian army may resume active combat actions on the southern front to cut off the land corridor to Crimea.
Currently, Ukrainian forces are cementing their positions in the southern village of Krynky in the Kherson region on the left bank of the Dnipro River, Naychuk said. ■
