KUALA LUMPUR, Feb. 21 (Xinhua) -- Economists have foreseen a firmer trade for Malaysia in 2024 after the country's exports rebounded by 8.7 percent year on year in January.
Maybank Investment Bank said in a note that the positive start to 2024 augurs well for the expected rebound in external trade to support the outlook of firmer economic growth this year.
According to the research house, the robust external trade growth last month could be due to shipments ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays in February.
For this year, Maybank currently forecasts Malaysia's exports and imports to rebound by 4.7 percent and 5.6 percent, respectively.
A major driver for the projected exports rebound this year is the projected turnaround in the electronics cycle as the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) expects global semiconductor sales to rebound by 13.1 percent in 2024.
Meanwhile, Kenanga Research said in a note that it maintained Malaysia's export growth forecast at 9.4 percent based on the expectation of a turnaround in the export of electrical and electronics (E&E) and a demand recovery from China.
The research house still expects Malaysia's domestic economy to continue growing, with a projected gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 4.5 percent to 5 percent in 2024.
Additionally, strong domestic demand is also expected to contribute significantly to this positive outlook.
PublicInvest Research has also forecast Malaysia's exports of goods and services to rebound with a growth rate of 5.4 percent in 2024.
It said the anticipated upswing is particularly promising for major E&E exporters like Malaysia, given that exports of E&E products constitute over 40 percent of the Southeast Asian country's total gross exports.
Furthermore, the Malaysian government anticipates a substantial 5.5 percent increase in manufactured goods exports for 2024, further underpinning the optimistic sentiment, said the research house.
MIDF Research also maintained its projection that Malaysia's export performance will rebound this year and grow at 5.2 percent.
According to MIDF, the stronger-than-expected rebound in January was also in line with improving regional trade performance.
In other words, it said Malaysia stands to benefit from the pick-up in regional production activities and improvement in global demand.
It also expects Malaysia's imports to rebound to 4.4 percent this year, on the back of expanding domestic demand and improvement in manufacturing activities. ■
