by Yi Xin
This week, the 54th Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum will be held in the Swiss ski resort of Davos. The theme, "Rebuilding Trust", is highly relevant as the world economy grapples with lackluster post-pandemic recovery. These days, trust is indeed in short supply in certain quarters of the world.
Some Western officials and media outlets have been churning out dire predictions about the Chinese economy, referring to it as being on the verge of "collapse."
They seem to suffer from bipolar disorder by alternately propagating the "China threat" and "China collapse" to serve their political agenda. But how could a country be warned as a "primary rival" and "pacing threat" if it's about to collapse? For all the baffling China-bashing, the country's sound economic growth in the long run is the most powerful refutation.
In the first three quarters of 2023, China's GDP grew by 5.2 percent year-on-year, outpacing most major economies. The World Bank has projected China's economy to grow at 5.2 percent for the whole year, and the IMF expects 5.4 percent. China remains a significant engine driving global growth.
China's economy is now transforming from high-speed growth to high-quality development. Economic indicators shouldn't be interpreted in an isolated and shortsighted manner, otherwise one will lose sight of the real economic picture in China.
Let facts and figures speak for themselves.
Strong consumption demand. A population of more than 1.4 billion and a middle-income group exceeding 400 million underpin a robust Chinese consumer market. In fact, consumption contributed to 83.2 percent of China's overall GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2023. New business forms like livestreaming e-commerce are coming thick and fast. Tourism is rebounding with a vengeance. During the 2024 New Year holiday, the total revenue of the tourism market surpassed US$11.23 billion in the three days, tripling that of the holiday season last year. Continued urbanization and rising income levels are expected to drive consumption growth in the medium to long term, according to the consulting firm McKinsey & Company.
Resilient foreign trade. In 2023, China's share of global trade is expected to remain stable at around 14% against the backdrop of a nearly 5% shrink in global trade volume, as predicted by the United Nations. And China has pledged to share its immense market opportunities with the world. For instance, the China International Import Expo (CIIE), the world's first dedicated import exhibition and a "golden gate" to the vast Chinese market, just saw a total of US$78.41 billion worth of tentative deals reached for one-year purchases of goods and services in 2023.
Robust foreign investment. Since the beginning of 2023, many senior executives of multinationals have visited China and described the country as "not an option", but a "must-go destination". Their commitment to expanding presence in this attractive market is palpable. According to the Ministry of Commerce, in the first three quarters of 2023, 37,814 new foreign-invested enterprises were established in China, a year-on-year increase of 32.4 percent. Paid-in foreign direct investment in the Chinese mainland totaled US$126.37 billion, which remains at a historically high level.
The annual Central Economic Work Conference held in Beijing last month could offer a broader picture, one of the key phrases from the Conference, "qualitatively new productive forces", has drawn much attention. It refers to a new form of productive forces derived from continuous sci-tech breakthroughs and innovation that drive strategic emerging industries and future industries in a more intelligent information era.
In fact, efforts to develop such qualitatively new productive forces have been in the making for some time. In the first 11 months of 2023, China's investment in high-tech industries increased by 10.5% year-on-year. The goal to forge new industries, new models and new impetus with disruptive and frontier technologies is crystal clear. Emerging sectors such as biomanufacturing, commercial space industry and quantum technology are already taking shape.
To be fair, the Chinese economy does face difficulties and challenges, like all economies do. Post-pandemic recovery in China is characterized by an undulating progress, often with twists and turns. We never shy away from the problems. Actually, the most acute ones as well as the targeted measures have been set out at the annual Central Economic Work Conference. Pragmatic attitude like this is what the world truly needs.
Faster growth in China has positive spillovers on the rest of the world. Over the past decade, China has been the source of more than 40 percent of global growth. And a research from IMF suggests that a one percentage point increase in China will, on average, increase the level of output in other economies by 0.3 percent. However, some people in the West choose to ignore such notable contribution and keep talking down the Chinese economy. It will do no good to anyone.
China calls for economic globalization that is universally beneficial and inclusive. Because in this globalized era, benefit to one means benefit to all, whereas harm to one means harm to all. Mongering doom and gloom about others will surely boomerang and take a toll on the entire international community.
At Davos, China is expected to send a resounding message of confidence and solidarity with the rest of the world to meet the challenges head-on. It is indeed high time that countries rebuild trust and move beyond recognizing problems to finding solutions together.
The author is a Beijing-based international affairs commentator.
