News Analysis: Türkiye mulls greenlight NATO expansion, end saga with U.S.-Xinhua

News Analysis: Türkiye mulls greenlight NATO expansion, end saga with U.S.

Source: Xinhua

Editor: huaxia

2024-01-13 00:15:15

by Burak Akinci

ANKARA, Jan. 12 (Xinhua) -- Türkiye is pondering whether to approve Sweden's accession to NATO and put an end to a lengthy strife with the United States over the alliance's enlargement and the purchase of U.S.-made weapons, experts said.

Türkiye is one of the two countries with Hungary which has still not ratified Sweden's membership status to NATO despite piling pressure from its allies, especially the United States.

The Turkish parliament's foreign affairs commission approved the bid last December after more than a year and a half delay.

A vote in the parliament's general assembly is the next step as lawmakers are due to return from recess on Tuesday.

While the exact date for the parliament debate has yet to be announced, there are positive statements from Turkish officials.

On Wednesday, Turkish parliament speaker Numan Kurtulmus stated that the country "is not against the policy of the alliance's enlargement" and that Sweden has fulfilled a "significant part of its obligations."

He was referring to demands made by Ankara for Sweden to act against anti-Turkish groups, namely Kurdish, considered "terrorists" by Türkiye.

Ankara has stalled the accession process for security reasons but at the same time called on the U.S. Congress to lift its opposition to the sale of 40 F-16 fighters and 79 upgrade packages for existing aircraft.

Serkan Demirtas, a foreign policy specialist and journalist, told Xinhua that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants a "simultaneous approval of Sweden's bid in exchange for the sale of the warplanes."

Even if Turkish lawmakers ratify NATO expansion, the Turkish leader may wait until the multi-billion-U.S. dollar arms purchase is secured to sign the bill into law, Demirtas said.

While U.S. President Joe Biden is favorable to this deal, the country's lawmakers are reluctant because of concerns regarding other issues. These are Türkiye's rapprochement with Russia, tensions in the Agean with Greece, and Syria, where Ankara and Washington have opposing interests.

Erdogan's virulent criticism of Israel's military actions in the Gaza Strip has added fuel to the fire, Demirtas said.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken raised the Swedish bid last week in Istanbul during his week-long regional tour to address the Gaza conflict. Later, in remarks reported by the press in Athens, he said that Ankara may finalize Sweden's stalled accession "in the coming weeks."

In Demirtas's view, Sweden is not in the picture anymore and NATO growth is now a Turkish-American issue. "As Sweden has fulfilled Turkish demands, the last remaining obstacle to its NATO membership is the F-16 issue with the United States."

However, some analysts think that the U.S. Congress will not approve the sale of additional warplanes despite Ankara's overtures.

"Strategically, Washington considers Türkiye more a foe than an ally, and even if the Biden administration greenlights the sale, it will eventually be refused by Congress," Volkan Ozdemir, head of ATASAM Center for Strategic Research, a think-tank based in Ankara, told Xinhua.

This analyst recalled that Türkiye was removed from the U.S.-led F-35 stealth fighter project in 2019 because it acquired Russian S-400 air defense systems.

He also pointed out that Washington backs militarily Kurdish fighters in northern Syria considering the security threat by Ankara as one of the current points of tension between the two allies.

"It doesn't seem possible that Türkiye will receive the F-16 jets as well as part of this strategical approach from the American side," Ozdemir said.