CHICAGO, Feb. 18 (Xinhua) -- Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures sagged in the past week as the U.S. and world economic outlooks dim due to rising interest rates, a research company has said.
Chicago-based research company AgResource sees the week ahead as key in determining grain price trends into early summer.
CBOT corn again failed at 6.90 chart-based resistance. The medium-term outlook is turning more negative based on favorable spring climate forecasts in both the United States and central Brazil. The market has contended with a lack of builds in global and export stocks amid the extreme Argentine drought.
However, the fear of shortages will be eased by a 25-30 million metric tons gain in global corn production this year. A neutral trend is probable for a few more weeks, but an easing or a resetting of price is anticipated in new crop futures.
U.S. export demand has yet to substantially increase as world corn importer interest is expected to shift to South America by June.
U.S. wheat futures ended lower by varying degrees last week. There is no indication that U.S. and EU export demand will improve unless the Black Sea export corridor is eliminated, which is unlikely. World wheat trade through mid-February is up just 1 million tons yearly, far less than the U.S. Department of Agriculture's forecasts for the crop year.
Yet, it is the wrong time of year to be overly bearish on wheat, as major Northern Hemisphere soil moisture issues are absent outside the U.S. Western Plains. A recovery in wheat production in North Africa, the Middle East and India is forecast. Record soft wheat yields are possible this year across the U.S. Pacific Northwest and Midwest amid abundant soil moisture.
Soybean futures rose to a five-month high and closed lower on the week. Early week support came from a strong rally in soymeal on fresh speculative buying by funds.
The Mato Grosso soybean harvest is estimated at 60 percent complete, while the Brazilian government crop agency CONAB estimated the total Brazilian harvest at 15 percent compared to 25 percent last year.
AgResource holds a bearish soybean outlook amid the disappointing January crush rate of the U.S. National Oilseed Processors Association and a sharp fall in U.S. soybean exports. Soybean futures at 15 dollars are too high relative to world soybean fundamentals, with 14 dollars targeted. ■
