ADEN, Yemen, Oct. 22 (Xinhua) -- The renewed Saudi-Houthi conflict, more than another chapter in Yemen's long-running war, is emerging as a stress test for Gulf security, forcing regional states to balance old alliances against new threats, military deterrence against diplomacy, and external protection against self-reliance.
Different Gulf reactions -- from allegations about renewed Emirati involvement in Yemen to Oman's efforts to preserve mediation and Qatar's push for domestic defense production -- point to a broader recalibration: building stronger defenses while recognizing that military superiority alone cannot end the region's conflicts.
SHARED THREAT, UNEASY PARTNERSHIP
Citing unnamed sources in Yemen, The Guardian said the United Arab Emirates (UAE), once a key partner in the Saudi-led coalition, had agreed to resume payments to some government forces fighting the Houthi group.
Ahmed Naji, a senior Yemen analyst at the International Crisis Group, told Xinhua that it remains "too early" to speak of an Emirati return, given "unresolved differences with Saudi Arabia over Yemen."
The main driver for a possible UAE involvement would be the shared threat posed by Houthi expansion to both countries' interests, he said.
The UAE, analysts note, has strategic interests in safeguarding navigation through the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait and preventing shifts in Yemen's balance of power.
Yazeed Al-Jeddawy, research manager at the Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies, said he expected "limited and selective rapprochement (between the UAE and Saudi Arabia) driven by the common threat, rather than a full return to the partnership that existed at the beginning of the Yemen war."
Thabet Hussein, a military and strategic analyst, said any renewed UAE involvement would likely rest on "clearer agreements" with Riyadh defining the scope of cooperation to avoid a repeat of the disagreements that previously fractured their partnership.
Mohammed Al-Zghoul, director of the Iranian Studies Unit at the Emirates Policy Center in Abu Dhabi, told Xinhua that three distinct scenarios for the UAE should not be conflated: supporting allied Yemeni forces, helping defend Saudi territory and redeploying Emirati troops inside Yemen.
Financial or logistical support for local allies in Yemen would largely continue Abu Dhabi's existing approach of retaining influence without returning to direct warfare, he said.
"There are no serious indications that the UAE is moving toward returning its troop to Yemen," Al-Zghoul said.
OPEN CHANNELS, HARDENING POSITIONS
Oman has maintained channels of communication with the Houthis and sought to facilitate negotiations.
The challenge, Naji said, now lies less with the mediator than with the trajectory of the war, as both sides have hardened their positions and increasingly approach the conflict in "zero-sum" terms, leaving little room for negotiations in the near term.
"The problem is what each side can bring to the negotiating table under the current circumstances," Al-Jeddawy echoed.
The Houthis believe "military gains have strengthened their bargaining position" and are unlikely to return to earlier understandings without demanding greater concessions, he said.
Riyadh, by contrast, faces a different calculation. Returning to negotiations without first restoring some degree of deterrence could carry significant political and strategic costs, particularly after "Houthi attacks demonstrated the group's ability to threaten Saudi infrastructure and economic interests," he added.
Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain, meanwhile, have adopted less direct approaches, combining solidarity with Saudi Arabia with support for diplomacy efforts.
RETHINKING REGIONAL SECURITY ORDER
Analysts say recent conflicts have prompted a broader reassessment of Gulf security, challenging long-held assumptions about how the region's security should be maintained.
Yemen is only one factor. "Tensions involving Iran, instability around strategic waterways and threats to economic security are pushing Gulf states to reconsider defense policies, expand military industries and reassess strategic partnerships," Naji said.
Qatar offered a fresh example this week with plans for a domestic defense-production hub focused on areas including ballistic-missile and drone defense and cybersecurity.
Al-Jeddawy described such moves as "a long-term transformation accelerated by successive wars and uncertainty surrounding the durability of U.S. security commitments."
"Gulf states cannot dispense with the United States in the foreseeable future," but they increasingly want to reduce excessive dependence, diversify partnerships and ensure they can protect critical infrastructure if outside assistance or supply chains are disrupted, he added.
The emerging Gulf strategy, analysts say, is therefore less about replacing one security umbrella than building more layers beneath it -- stronger national defenses, diversified partnerships and regional diplomacy.
The Saudi-Houthi confrontation is putting that model to an immediate test: whether Gulf states can build enough defensive autonomy to withstand the next missile or drone attack while creating a political framework capable of making the next attack less likely. ■
