BRUSSELS, Nov. 6 (Xinhua) -- Global average temperatures in 2026 are now virtually certain to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, making 2026 the second calendar year to do so, after 2024, the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said Friday.
According to C3S, a statistical prediction based on data through October indicates that 2026 will most likely rank as the second-warmest year on record, with about a 20-percent chance of matching or surpassing 2024, currently the warmest year recorded.
The four-year average global temperature for 2023-2026 is also expected to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, it said.
October 2026 was the warmest October on record globally, with the average global surface air temperature 1.75 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. It marked the third consecutive month above the 1.5-degree threshold.
Average sea surface temperatures outside the polar regions reached 20.95 degrees Celsius, the highest recorded for October, surpassing the previous October record set in 2023. As El Nino conditions intensified, the monthly average sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific's Nino 3.4 region, a key area of the equatorial Pacific used to monitor El Nino, reached a record 29.94 degrees Celsius.
Europe recorded its second-warmest October, with temperatures most above average in eastern Europe and Scandinavia. Exceptionally low river flows persisted across much of central and eastern Europe, affecting the Rhine, Danube and Vistula, while heavy rainfall and flooding hit several countries elsewhere in the region.
"An exceptionally strong El Nino is adding further heat to a climate already warmed by human activities," said Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
The expected four-year average above 1.5 degrees Celsius highlighted how sustained the period of global warmth had become, she said. ■
